Hi, and welcome to this last pre-Election Day installment of On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.
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SANFORD, Fla. — If the election were a couple, it might just be the Hogans from Deland, Fla.
Robert Hogan, 61, is a committed supporter of President Trump, who praises his handling of the economy and his business background. Pamala Hogan, 55, is so horrified over how Mr. Trump has governed the country that she changed her voter registration to the Democratic Party. They both voted early for the first time this year, casting their ballots in the kind of suburban Orlando county that could swing this quadrennial battleground state.
“We’ve agreed to not speak about it in our house,” said Ms. Hogan, a graphic artist. “As passionate as you can feel I am, he’s also as passionate.”
But when pressed on their predictions for tomorrow night, they both stuck with their guys.
“I really think Trump could win by a lot more than people would believe,” said Mr. Hogan, who works in commercial contracting. “His supporters are quiet but he’s an overperformer.”
Ms. Hogan fired back: “Biden’s going to win because we woke up and realized what could happen.”
Here in the Sunshine State, both have about an equal chance of being proved right.
Florida is always a jittery place around election time, but I’ve never seen it quite like this.
Democrats and Republicans are sweating out the final hours of the race here. Our polling average shows the contest within two percentage points. Internal numbers that I’ve seen from the campaigns and other political players have it about the same, maybe even tighter.
But the fried nerves aren’t just about the outcome of the election. The voters I interviewed around Orlando and Tampa in recent days worried about what might follow the results — lawsuits, protests or even violence.
That sentiment isn’t unique to Florida. The whole country — really, the whole world! — is anxiously watching.
So why end this marathon in Florida? Well, I must admit I have a soft spot for this kooky swing state, the home of frozen iguana forecasts, pet alligators and Mar-a-Lago drama.
It’s a place that is really many political states in one, where you can interview Venezuelan waitresses in the morning, talk to evangelical students in the afternoon and spend the evening with Midwestern retirees. A place where elections are expensive and almost always close.
A place that’s kind of like America.
It’s also 75 degrees and sunny today, and my cortadito is made just right. (Try to beat that, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.)
But I didn’t just come to Florida for its political diversity. I came because — like so many of you, dear readers — I am tired and ready to just know What Is Going to Happen?!?!?!?!
Florida will offer us some of the earliest insights during the big show tomorrow night.
For a state famous for election blunders, Florida is promising that this year will be different. There are some key factors working in favor of a quick count: Unlike Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Florida allows counties to start processing mailed-in ballots weeks before Election Day. All those mail ballots must be received (not postmarked) by Nov. 3, so there won’t be more that arrive after Election Day and need to be counted. And the early-vote count is supposed to be released by 8:30 p.m. tomorrow.
Now, if the race is as close as expected, Florida still may not be called before we fall asleep tomorrow night. But the early results should give us a sense of the direction of the race.
If Mr. Trump loses Florida, he must nearly sweep the remaining swing states — not an easy lift given his current numbers. If he wins Florida, we may be facing a longer road to calling a winner, as the race could be determined in states that will take more time to count. (I’m looking at you, Pennsylvania.)
In Central Florida, the Hogans are getting ready. Ms. Hogan said she had asked her husband what they should have for their election night meal. One of them, she figured, would be celebrating.
Mr. Hogan isn’t so sure. “Here’s something I will predict,” he said. “There’s going to be rioting not matter who wins.”
Your election questions, answered (as best we can)
With the end of voting almost here, there were lots of questions about when we would know the results. You ask, we answer. Even if we don’t really know!
With so many states using mail-in ballots, I’ve read that we will probably not know the results of the election on Nov. 4. Does anyone have an idea of when we will know?
— Mary Beth Patten, Florence, Mont.
Well, this is an easy one.
No.
When we will know a winner depends on a lot of questions we can’t answer right now. How many issues will there be with voting on Tuesday? How quickly will states be able to count a flood of mail ballots? How tight will the election end up being in crucial areas?
What we do know is that the counting is likely to take longer this year. Two key battleground states — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — can’t start counting all those mailed-in votes until Election Day. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia allow postmarked ballots to arrive after Election Day. Even by the most optimistic of estimates, only nine states expect to have at least 98 percent of unofficial results reported by noon Wednesday.
In Pennsylvania, which could be the state that decides a close election, the secretary of state has said that she expects “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by … Friday.
This is not new: We have never had final results on election night. News outlets declare a winner based on projections, once it becomes clear that partial counts make it impossible for one candidate to overcome the advantage of the other.
The difference this year is that because of how so many of the votes are being cast — by mail, provisionally, early — news outlets’ decision desks may not have enough information on election night to make an accurate projection.
Which brings us to our next question …
How will the TV networks and news organizations “call” an election on election night?
— Gene Gorrin, Union, N.J.
The short answer? Very, very carefully. And maybe not on election night at all.
Various news outlets, including The New York Times, have said they plan to prioritize caution over their journalistic instinct for beating the competition.
How the election results are reported by television networks is likely to look different tomorrow night. As my colleague Michael Grynbaum reported, real-time results will be displayed in the context of the total expected vote, including absentee and mail-in ballots — a change from the usual metric of “precincts reporting.”
There’s also likely to be more information about how and why the calls are being made. The Associated Press, which expects to call about 7,000 races up and down the ballot, plans to explain its calls — or lack of them — in real time.
The Times relies on information from The A.P., in addition to analysis from its own election experts, to call races. We will also be bringing back our famous “needle” that shows who is on track to win — but only for three key states where we expect to have enough information about which votes have been counted. (The needle itself does not make the race calls.)
Want to know more? A number of outlets are offering pretty detailed explainers of their race call operations.
Does the president have any legal power himself, through the Department of Justice, or through the court system to curtail state ballot counting at midnight, Nov. 3?
— Norm Goldman
President Trump has recently argued, ignoring the history of every election night, that states should stop counting ballots by the end of Nov. 3. But he cannot prevent states, which manage their own elections, from counting ballots beyond midnight.
No state ever reports final results on election night, even in years where there isn’t a pandemic. And to be clear, Mr. Trump cannot directly dispute the election results in court, but he could challenge voting methods and election procedures in an effort to change the postelection counting process.
Mr. Trump has said that he wanted to get Justice Amy Coney Barrett onto the Supreme Court before the election because he expects the court to rule on postelection challenges. This is an extremely unusual occurrence — even if some people still have reserved trauma from the 2000 election, when the Supreme Court stopped Florida’s manual recount, effectively handing the election to George W. Bush.
But last week, Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh breathed new life into the Bush v. Gore ruling, writing that the decision could play a role in deciding potential challenges to election rulings from state courts.
Isabella Grullón Paz and Maggie Astor contributed reporting.
Drop us a line!
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… Seriously
Are you … a little stressed? Our friends at The Times’s Styles desk are here to help. Check out their Election Distractor. Scooter from “Sleep With Me” finally gets his moment!
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Florida, Man - The New York Times
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