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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

'Way overdue for a correction': Long-time bull Jim Paulsen delivers a 10% to 15% pullback forecast - CNBC

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The latest market setback may be a foreshock to a more serious downturn.

The Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen predicts a 10% to 15% pullback will rattle investors next year due to high valuations and less accommodative Federal Reserve policies.

"We are way overdue for a correction, and we're going to get one," the firm's chief investment strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday. "I would be trying to diversify away from the S&P 500, which I think might take the brunt of it."

Paulsen, a long-term bull, isn't as concerned about the economic and market impact of the Covid omicron variant.

"It's more likely to prove to be less serious than we fear at the moment. It's not like this is a brand new thing... We have a population that's far more vaccinated," he said. "The odds of it really having a significant shutdown effect like we had earlier are pretty low."

But due to the overall risk backdrop, Paulsen is advising investors to start reducing exposure to large cap S&P 500 stocks, including Big Tech.

"I would spend more time on repositioning my portfolio — maybe taking advantage of how well tech and growth has done here in the last few months. Moving a little out of that," said Paulsen.

He expects a major market setback to be temporary due to continued strong GDP and earnings growth. His S&P 500 target for next year is 5,500, which implies a 9.5% gain from Tuesday's close.

"If inflation does moderate eventually and we do get beyond Covid in a bigger way, then we could really see some optimism breakout maybe in the latter part of next year," he added.

Paulsen expects small and mid-cap stocks, cyclicals and international markets to emerge as the biggest winners.

"Look at the carnage in small caps and cyclicals," he said. "If you've been looking to buy that, I'd take advantage of the fear that's out there now to maybe do that."

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.9% to close at 4,567.00. It's now 4% away from its record highs.

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Shorewomen 3-0 for the First Time in Centennial Action in Coasting Past Owls, 64-29 - WashingtonCollegeSports.com

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Washington Off to Its Best Start in 13 Years

BRYN MAWR, Pa. – The visiting Washington College women's basketball improved to 3-0 in Centennial Conference play for the first time ever with a 64-29 win over host Bryn Mawr on Tuesday night in Centennial Conference women's basketball action at the Class of 1958 Gym.  The Shorewomen are now 6-1 overall on the season, while the Owls fall to 3-3 overall on the season and 0-3 in Centennial action.

Washington College 64 Bryn Mawr 29

How It Happened
- Washington scored the game's first 14 points to lead 14-0 with 3:13 left in the first quarter on two free throws by Kiersten Rose.
- Jessica Smith would get Bryn Mawr on the board with 3:06 remaining in the first on a jumper before the Shorewomen scored the final five points of the first to lead 19-2 after one.
- The Owls scored seven of the first nine points in the second quarter to trim the Shorewomen's lead to 21-9 with 5:55 to go in the second on a Smith jumper. 
- However, the Shorewomen closed out the quarter on a 9-1 run to take a 30-10 lead into halftime as Joy Sanders capped the run on a lay-in with 10 ticks to go.
- Washington outscored Bryn Mawr 14-12 in the third to take a 44-22 lead heading into the fourth quarter.
- The Shorewomen used a 20-7 fourth quarter to provide the final margin as Sanders gave the guests their biggest lead of the game of 35 points on a layup with 44 seconds left.

For The Shorewomen (6-1, 3-0 CC)
- Andrea Prestianne (game-highs of 18 points and four steals; sets personal-best in points), Lizzie Hudock (career-high 13 points), Sanders (career-bests of 11 points and 10 rebounds for first all-time double-double), Madeline Williams (career-high 10 boards)
- WC shot 37% from the floor (24-for-65), 36% from three-point range (4-for-11) and 60% (12-for-20) from the foul line in the game.
- The Shorewomen outrebounded the Owls, 51-37, while turning it over 11 times.
- WC outscored Bryn Mawr in points in the paint, 26-14, points off turnovers, 19-4, second chance points, 12-4, transition points, 2-0, and bench points, 19-2.

For Bryn Mawr (3-3, 0-3 CC)
- Smith (10 points and two steals), Sydney Collins (team-high nine rebounds), Aliya Stubenbord (two steals)
- The Owls shot 21% from the floor (11-for-52), 33% from three-point land (3-for-9) and 40% from the foul stripe (4-for-10).
- Bryn Mawr had 19 turnovers in the game.

Notes
- Washington is off to its best start since starting the 2008-09 season, 8-1.
- The 2012-13 edition of Shorewomen opened conference play 2-0, the only other time in program history they won their first two CC games.

Up Next
12/2 v. Johns Hopkins – 7:00 p.m. (Centennial Conference Game)

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Microsoft is selling ugly Windows sweaters again, and this time, it’s Minesweeper - The Verge

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Microsoft has launched a new Windows software-themed ugly sweater on its Xbox Gear Shop dedicated to the infamous Windows game Minesweeper.

It’s well done: not only is the whole Minesweeper level shaped like a Christmas tree, but it’s also got mines masquerading as snowflakes and “buttons” to minimize the window or exit the game if you so desire, plus the classic wavy Windows logo that hearkens back to Windows 3.1. (If you’re wondering why the sweater has “1990” remaining mines, that’s a reference to the year Minesweeper first came out.)

This is Microsoft’s second year of Windows-themed ugly sweaters. Last year, the company released three ugly sweater designs, including one garment based on the timeless MS Paint application, which humorously looked as if it were designed in that very app. In 2020, Microsoft donated a portion of the proceeds from each sweater to Girls Who Code; this year, the company appears to be giving a lump sum of $100,000 to the AbleGamers charity for gamers with disabilities.

Microsoft is selling the Minesweeper ugly sweater for the explosive price of $74.99 — $5 more expensive than last year’s designs. The sweaters sold out in 24 hours last year with a late December restock, so if you want to look like a pro at flagging mines this holiday, then get one soon.

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Town of Ithaca aims to limit short-term rentals with new legislation - ithaca.com

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Town of Ithaca aims to limit short-term rentals with new legislation  ithaca.com

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Powell says time to retire 'transitory' when talking about inflation---and stock markets tank - MarketWatch

Mike Tomlin: 'It’s put up and shut up time' for reeling Steelers - NFL.com

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On the heels of an embarrassing loss to the division rival Cincinnati Bengals that relegated the Pittsburgh Steelers to a .500 record, coach Mike Tomlin believes the time has come for a shake-up. He's frustrated, he's determined, and changes are apparently on the way.

"What you can't do is continue to do the things you've been doing and expect a different result," Tomlin said, noting that both personnel and schematic adjustments are on the way. "They won't be drastic," but "hopefully significant."

What those changes might entail remains to be seen; Tomlin was vague on details, saying only that it could involve "repositioning" players or using more depth. The coach even suggested that a padded practice could be in order this week. An always-physical game against the division-leading Baltimore Ravens is up next, and if the Steelers aren't up to the task, their playoff hopes with a loss would look mighty dim.

"We'll see on Sunday, won't we?" Tomlin said. "Like I mentioned earlier it's put up and shut up time. Talking doesn't get it done. I can quell you in that question with an answer, but it's not real. What we do in that stadium on Sunday is real. We're not seeking comfort, we're not trying to quell the masses. We stunk it up, so we're going to wallow in our stench for a while and wait for our next opportunity to play football."

Pittsburgh's play in the 41-10 loss to the Bengals didn't go unnoticed by former Steelers defensive back Ryan Clark, who was highly critical of the performance, in particular of the team's defense in noting a lack of physicality and energy on that side of the ball. Tomlin didn't disagree with the recent criticisms from his former players.

"They would know. They know the things that we value," Tomlin said. "I don't know specifically what you're talking about. The guys that have been here, guys that have been in that room, guys that understand the standards that we aspire to, they probably have a better understanding of that than anybody that's not in that room right now. I would imagine, whatever it is you're referring to, I agree with them."

Asked about a comment from wide receiver Chase Claypool that Steelers practices could be more fun and include music, Tomlin dismissed the suggestion in his classic no-nonsense fashion.

"Claypool plays wideout and I'll let him do that," Tomlin said. "I'll formulate the practice approach that division of labor is probably appropriate."

The Steelers (5-5-1) remain in the playoff hunt, but it won't be an easy climb. Five AFC teams not leading their division -- the Bills, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos and Bengals -- have winning records ahead of the Steelers in the race for a wild-card berth. And with the Colts and Browns both at 6-6, Pittsburgh will battle a crowded field vying for the postseason. 

And if Tomlin has anything to say about it, that push will come with a far better effort than the Steelers showed on Sunday.

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Users revolt as Microsoft bolts a short-term financing app onto Edge - Ars Technica

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Users revolt as Microsoft bolts a short-term financing app onto Edge
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Microsoft is taking a lot of flak for planning to integrate a short-term financing app into the company’s Edge browser. The app would allow users to make purchases immediately and pay for them at a future date.

In recent years, Edge has built a following of users attracted to the security of the Microsoft browser, in addition to features including immersive reading, collections (which saves webpages or notes to categorized notebooks), vertical tabs, and the ability to take screenshots directly from a webpage.

​​Two weeks ago, Microsoft said it planned to bake an app called Zip directly into Edge. The so-called “buy now, pay later” app, which used to be known as Quadpay, lets shoppers break purchases into equal installment payments so they get their merchandise upfront, rather than having to wait until it’s paid in full. It didn’t take long for the howling and gnashing of teeth to begin.

“This all feels extremely unnecessary for a browsing experience,” one user said. The user continued:

I don't want it. I don't even want the shopping and discovery features y'all have pushed out. These kinds of things should be separated into extensions. I am way more interested in a lightning fast browser that uses minimal resources while being secure. Edge on Mac is getting heavier and heavier.

Please stop turning all these things on by default, or at least give us an option for a "Core" experience that is basic browsing features plus the security enhancements. As it stands right now, I spend about 5-6 minutes making sure that all the extra crap is disabled whenever I set up Edge on a new computer or move between channels.

Another reviewer wrote:

You're starting to overdo these third-party integrations and services. This is just sleazy, Edge is on the verge of feeling dirty to use. Edge is not just any random browser, it's the (increasingly hard to change) default of the most important desktop OS in the world. That comes not just with benefits but with responsibilities towards your users as well. This isn't the way. Don't ruin a great browser by taking these unnecessary cash grabs too far. Stop it before Edge becomes known for being adware trash.

Bloatware

Microsoft says it “does not collect a fee for connecting users to loan providers,” but as numerous commenters below have pointed out, that statement has loopholes big enough to drive a truck through. A Microsoft spokeswoman declined to say if the company received other forms of renumeration.

In fairness to Microsoft, Edge isn’t the only browser that comes with questionable bloatware. Brave, arguably one of the most privacy-preserving browsers out there, now welds its own cryptocurrency wallet to its wares (ostensibly to counter fake wallet extensions) and also provides native support for sending and receiving NFTs, connecting and interacting with distributed apps known as DApps, and buying and sending cryptocurrency.

Zip doesn’t operate on a typical short-term financing revenue model. There are no interest rates. Instead, as long as payments are made on time, the company charges $1 for each installment made, so in most cases, that would be $4. That’s not a bad price for purchases of $1,000—the Zip maximum—or even $100. But for a purchase of $35—the Zip minimum—the fee amounts to an interest rate of more than 11 percent.

While most of the critics excoriating Microsoft have focused on the feature's money-grubbing appearance, the bigger issue is user and merchant control. Adding this feature increases the browser’s attack surface—meaning there are more potentially vulnerable lines of code for hackers to exploit.

What’s more, the company has not yet explained if integrating this app into Edge gives more visibility into users’ browsing habits. Microsoft is also automatically opting merchants in, and it requires those who don’t want to participate to retroactively opt out.

Forcing all Edge users to have this app running on their devices is heavy-handed. Zip has existed as a standalone app for years, and there’s no reason for that opt-in arrangement to end. In case this wasn’t already known to Microsoft, it should be plainly obvious now.

Post updated to note the loophole in Microsoft's statement regarding fees.

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Home price gains slow down for the first time since May 2020 - CNBC

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Home prices are still considerably higher than they were a year ago, when the pandemic caused a massive run on housing, but the gains are finally starting to ease up.

Home prices rose 19.5% in September year over year, down from a 19.8% annual gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. That is the first decrease in the annual gain since May 2020.

The 10-city composite rose 17.8% from a year ago, down from an 18.6% gain in August. The 20-city composite gained 19.1% year over year, down from 19.6% in the previous month.

Cities with the highest price increases were Phoenix, Tampa, Florida, and Miami. Phoenix prices were up 33.1% year over year, Tampa up 27.7% and Miami up 25.2%. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ended in September 2021 versus the year ended in August 2021.

Chicago, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., saw the smallest annual price gains, but the increases were all still more than 10%.

"If I had to choose only one word to describe September 2021's housing price data, the word would be 'deceleration,'" said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Housing prices continued to show remarkable strength in September, though the pace of price increases declined slightly."

Extremely tight inventory, as well as heavy investor activity in the housing market, is keeping prices elevated. While the gains are falling, it is unlikely that prices will drop dramatically as they did during the housing crash. The fundamentals of supply and demand still favor an expensive market.

"The market has cooled since the beginning of the year, when dozens of competing bids, contingency waivers and price escalation clauses made home shopping a struggle, especially for first-time buyers. A growing number of homeowners are preparing to list in the next six months, hinting at an uncharacteristically active winter season," said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com.

Rising mortgage rates are also playing into prices. The average rate on the 30-year fixed fell to a recent low of 2.78% at the start of August, according to Mortgage News Daily, and then began rising steadily. It ended September at 3.15%.

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Time to begin thinking about a Ryan McMahon extension - Purple Row

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The Rockies have a lot to get done this offseason. Needs will have to be addressed and decisions need to be made to find success for both the present and future of this club. Once the dust settles on what’s sure to be a frenzy of an offseason for the entire league, the next order of business for the Rockies should be to begin considering an extension for one of the few obvious core players moving forward: Ryan McMahon.

With Trevor Story widely expected to sign with another club this offseason and Jon Gray now a member of the Rangers, it’s now back-to-back offseasons in which the Rockies have lost homegrown foundational talents.

It’s a trend that the new (ish) front office led by Bill Schmidt will want to put a stop to. They were proactive early and ensured that Antonio Senzatela would stick around for a few more years by locking him into an extension that runs until 2026 with a club option in 2027. They also had C.J. Cron sign his extension early this offseason, as well as Elias DĂ­az.

At this point in his young career, we know who McMahon is as a player and what he brings to the table. First and foremost, he’s a Gold Glove-caliber defender at third base, second base and... shortstop? (OK, it’s to be determined at shortstop, but the fact they’re even considering it shows how much the Rockies admire his defensive skillset.)

Offensively, he’s proven to be a 20-plus home run guy with high exit velocity stuff and might still have another level to his game if he can continue to cut down on his strikeouts like he did in 2021. The only true glaring mark on his baseball card is his 2020 season after a breakout 2019.

Ryan McMahon 2019-2021

Season AB BA HR OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Season AB BA HR OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2019 480 .250 24 .329 .450 .779 88
2020 172 .215 9 .295 .419 .714 80
2021 528 .254 23 .331 .449 .779 98

At this current point, the decision to extend him would hinge a lot on what you think of his 2020 season. Was it just a tough stretch that was magnified by the small sample size that was the 2020 season? Or was this a sign that he can be overmatched at times and spiral down? His 2021 season hints at the former as he finally built on that breakout 2019 season.

McMahon is now entering his second arbitration-eligible year which means under the current CBA, he’ll be a free agent after the 2023 season. That may seem like a long way from now, but we are just a month away from 2022.

Whenever this next season starts, he could find himself in a similar position as Adam Frazier and Trea Turner were this past trade deadline. If he were to get off to a hot start in the first half of the 2022 season and the Rockies were to, you know... Rockies, you can bet contending teams will be calling to check his availability. With an enticing season and a half of team control and no traction on an extension, the Rockies would be creeping up on being right back where they were with Trevor Story.

There’s also the added layer of the unknown. With the current CBA set to expire tomorrow (Dec. 1), a new one will take its place (eventually) with a new set of rules for teams and players to operate under. One of the points reportedly being discussed in the negotiations according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich is reducing the amount of time needed for players to reach free agency. This could include changing how service time is calculated and potentially allowing players to hit the open market after just two arbitration eligible years instead of the three in the current CBA.

As stated above, Ryan McMahon is now entering his second arbitration eligible season which, if the reported changes were to be immediately implemented for all active contracts, would mean he’d be entering his final year of team control. Obviously nothing is certain, especially when it comes the MLB Players Association and the owners, but it’s an idea worth kicking the tires on. This would avoid possibly having a third consecutive year full of speculation that another homegrown player might be on the way out.

It would also send a message to the fans that the Bill Schmidt regime is determined to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. Though that might not be the convincing move, it’s a step towards doing so. McMahon isn’t Arenado or even Story, but he’s certainly one of the most talented players on the current team.

Even if the Rockies were interested in getting something done with McMahon, there is no guarantee that he and his team would be interested in staying in Colorado. He may feel he still has more to prove or just want to keep his options open moving forward into his eventual free agency. With that said and once the new CBA is in place, it wouldn’t hurt to begin playing around with the idea before the 2022 season begins — whenever that may be.

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Cyber Monday online sales drop 1.4% from last year to $10.7 billion, falling for the first time ever - CNBC

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Consumers logged online Monday and spent $10.7 billion, marking a 1.4% decrease from year-ago levels, according to data released Tuesday by Adobe Analytics.

This year's tally marks the first time that Adobe has tracked a slowdown in spending on major shopping days. The firm first began reporting on e-commerce in 2012, and it analyzes more than 1 trillion visits to retailers' websites.

Despite the slowdown, Adobe expects the entire holiday season will see record-breaking e-commerce activity, as shoppers spread out their dollars over more days.

So far, from Nov. 1 through Cyber Monday, consumers in the United States have spent $109.8 billion online, which is up 11.9% year over year, Adobe said. And on 22 of those days, consumers purchased more than $3 billion worth of goods, another new milestone, it said.

Adobe anticipates digital sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 will hit $207 billion, which would represent record gains of 10%.

Last Cyber Monday, retailers rang up $10.8 billion in sales on the web, as more people stayed home and avoided shopping in retailers' stores due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. It marked a record day for e-commerce purchases in the U.S.

The slight deceleration in online spending follows a similar pattern that played out on Thanksgiving Day and on Black Friday this year, as shoppers appeared to have spread out their dollars onto more days rather than squeezing their shopping into "Cyber Week." Some of that behavior has been encouraged by retailers, including e-commerce behemoth Amazon, that have been touting Black Friday-style deals since October.

Retailers rang up $8.9 billion in sales online on Black Friday, down from the record of about $9 billion spent on the Friday after Thanksgiving a year earlier, Adobe said. And on Thanksgiving Day, consumers spent $5.1 billion on the internet, flat from year-ago levels.

Stores were also a little less crowded on key shopping days this year versus pre-pandemic times, as retailers gave consumers less of a reason to line up outside the mall in the wee hours of the morning. Shopper traffic on Black Friday was up 47.5% compared with year-ago levels, but was still down 28.3% versus 2019, according to separate data from Sensormatic Solutions. Many retailers, including Walmart and Target, also kept their doors closed on Thanksgiving this year.

Early deals pulled sales forward

"With early deals in October, consumers were not waiting around for discounts on big shopping days like Cyber Monday and Black Friday," said Taylor Schreiner, director at Adobe Digital Insights.

Another factor contributing to shoppers getting a head start on their gift buying this year is ongoing concerns around bottlenecks in the global supply chain and fears of finding merchandise out of stock.

On Cyber Monday, Adobe found the prevalence of out-of-stock messages on the internet rose 8% from the prior week. So far in November, out-of-stock messages on retailers' websites are up 169% compared with pre-pandemic levels, it said. And shoppers are finding items out of stock 258% more often than they were two holidays ago, Adobe said.

Discounts have also been weaker compared with past holidays, which could give consumers less of a reason to log on and look for deals or discourage them from spending.

Discount levels for electronics came in at 12% off on Cyber Monday, compared with 27% off a year earlier. Apparel was marked down by 18%, compared with 20% a year earlier. And appliances were only discounted by about 8%, versus by 20% in 2020.

Inflation on everything from fuel to raw materials is leading some businesses to pass on a fraction of those costs to consumers. Adobe said the final price point of consumers' shopping carts on Cyber Monday was up 13.9% year over year. That was also driven in part by more shoppers ringing up bigger-ticket items, such as furniture, it said.

The National Retail Federation, the retail industry's leading trade group, coined the term "Cyber Monday" in 2005 after it noticed an uptick in the number of people shopping online the Monday after Thanksgiving.

Retail trade group backs forecast

NRF estimates U.S. retail sales during November and December will rise by a record 8.5% to 10.5% year over year, amounting to as much as $859 billion. It reiterated that outlook on Tuesday during a call with reporters. Over the past five years, the average increase was 4.4%, NRF said.

NRF CEO Matt Shay acknowledged the unusual dynamics of this holiday season on the call with reporters. Among them, he said people bought many gifts in October because of concerns about out-of-stocks amid supply chain challenges. And news of the omicron variant of the coronavirus over the Thanksgiving shopping weekend injected some uncertainty about how consumers will shop and what they may buy.

The number of shoppers during the extended Thanksgiving weekend, which spans from Thursday to Cyber Monday, fell from both last year and 2019. Nearly 180 million Americans shopped during the five-day holiday weekend compared with about 186 million shoppers in 2020 and about 190 million in 2019.

Average spending declined, too, with Thanksgiving weekend shoppers shelling out an average of $301.27 on holiday-related purchases versus $311.75 in 2020 and $361.90 in 2019, according to NRF.

Even so, early holiday shopping in October and surveys of consumers about their spending plans indicate retailers will end the year on a high note, Shay said.

"We expect a bright, successful and joyous holiday season and we believe we're on track to do that," he said.

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Cyber Monday online sales drop 1.4% from last year to $10.7 billion, falling for the first time ever - CNBC
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Cyber Monday misses estimates on short supply, weak deals - North Bay Business Journal

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Final sales for Cyber Monday fell short of estimates and didn't surpass last year's record as lackluster sales and scarce inventory kept shoppers from breaking out their credit cards during the start of the holiday shopping season.

U.S. shoppers spent $10.7 billion on Cyber Monday, according to Adobe Inc., less than the $10.8 billion a year earlier and missing Adobe's estimate of $11.3 billion. But Adobe said that it still remains the biggest shopping day of the year. Consumers spent $12 million per minute as the clocked ticked on the final sales of the day.

"It reaffirms that many consumers had fulfilled their shopping urge earlier in the season," said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.

Hot sellers included L.O.L. Surprise dolls, Lego sets and Star Wars toys. Discounts were weak compared with a year earlier. For instance, electronics had average discounts of about 12% compared with 27% last year, according to Adobe, which tracks 1 trillion visits to retail websites and monitors sales of more than 100 million products.

Shipping bottle necks and supply logjams are also causing problems for shoppers. The occurrence of out-of-stock messages rose 169% compared with January 2020 and 258% from November 2019, Adobe said.

Big sale days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday have been gradually losing their prominence as shoppers spread their spending over longer periods. Black Friday spending of $8.9 billion fell slightly from a year ago, Adobe said. Still, U.S. online spending from Nov. 1 through Nov. 28 rose 13.6% from a year ago to $99.1 billion. The total for November and December combined is set to reach $207 billion, up 10% from last year's pandemic-fueled record, Adobe said.

The overall spending uptick is good news for merchants who sell on Amazon.com, so long as they got inventory into the U.S. in time. Some Amazon aggregators -- businesses that raise money to buy and invest in popular Amazon brands -- said sales are up as much as 50% from a year ago for products that make good gifts and are adequately stocked.

"This is a make-or-break season for aggregators and whoever has inventory is going to win," said Walter Gonzalez, chief executive officer of Miami-based GOJA, which sells various products on Amazon, including a Luna Bean plaster molding kit to make statues out of your hands.

Branded Group, which sells more than 40 houseware, personal care and leisure brands on Amazon and has raised $225 million to expand, is selling about 50% more products than it did a year ago, co-founder and CEO Pierre Poignant said. The company's big sellers include Ototo's bat-shaped wine bottle opener.

"Kitchen products are doing very well," he said. "We made investments to make sure we had sufficient inventory for the holidays."

The shift in spending from stores to websites -- accelerated during the pandemic last year -- has made the holiday shopping season boring, said Juozas Kaziukenas, founder and CEO of Marketplace Pulse, which monitors online sales.

"Physical Black Friday had this aura of craziness because people fought in stores and camped outside," he said. "Now that so much has shifted online, it's lost its excitement."

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Europe’s AI Act falls far short on protecting fundamental rights, civil society groups warn - TechCrunch

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Civil society has been poring over the detail of the European Commission’s proposal for a risk-based framework for regulating applications of artificial intelligence which was proposed by the EU’s executive back in April.

The verdict of over a hundred civil society organizations is that the draft legislation falls far short of protecting fundamental rights from AI-fuelled harms like scaled discrimination and blackbox bias — and they’ve published a call for major revisions.

“We specifically recognise that AI systems exacerbate structural imbalances of power, with harms often falling on the most marginalised in society. As such, this collective statement sets out the call of 11[5] civil society organisations towards an Artificial Intelligence Act that foregrounds fundamental rights,” they write, going on to identify nine “goals” (each with a variety of suggested revisions) in the full statement of recommendations.

The Commission, which drafted the legislation, billed the AI regulation as a framework for “trustworthy”, “human-centric” artificial intelligence. However it risks veering rather closer to an enabling framework for data-driven abuse, per the civil society groups’ analysis — given the lack of the essential checks and balances to actually prevent automated harms.

Today’s statement was drafted by European Digital Rights (EDRi), Access Now, Panoptykon Foundation, epicenter.works, AlgorithmWatch, European Disability Forum (EDF), Bits of Freedom, Fair Trials, PICUM, and ANEC — and has been signed by a full 115 not-for-profits from across Europe and beyond.

The advocacy groups are hoping their recommendations will be picked up by the European Parliament and Council as the co-legislators continue debating — and amending — the Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA) proposal ahead of any final text being adopted and applied across the EU.

Key suggestions from the civil society organizations include the need for the regulation to be amended to have a flexible, future-proofed approach to assessing AI-fuelled risks — meaning it would allow for updates to the list of use-cases that are considered unacceptable (and therefore prohibited) and those that the regulation merely limits, as well as the ability to expand the (currently fixed) list of so-called “high risk” uses.

The Commission’s proposal to categorizing AI risks is too “rigid” and poorly designed (the groups’ statement literally calls it “dysfunctional”) to keep pace with fast-developing, iterating AI technologies and changing use cases for data-driven technologies, in the NGOs’ view.

“This approach of ex ante designating AI systems to different risk categories does not consider that the level of risk also depends on the context in which a system is deployed and cannot be fully determined in advance,” they write. “Further, whilst the AIA includes a mechanism by which the list of ‘high-risk’ AI systems can be updated, it provides no scope for updating ‘unacceptable’ (Art. 5) and limited risk (Art. 52) lists.

“In addition, although Annex III can be updated to add new systems to the list of high-risk AI systems, systems can only be added within the scope of the existing eight area headings. Those headings cannot currently be modified within the framework of the AIA. These rigid aspects of the framework undermine the lasting relevance of the AIA, and in particular its capacity to respond to future developments and emerging risks for fundamental rights.”

They have also called out the Commission for a lack of ambition in framing prohibited use-cases of AI — urging a “full ban” on all social scoring scoring systems; on all remote biometric identification in publicly accessible spaces (not just narrow limits on how law enforcement can use the tech); on all emotion recognition systems; on all discriminatory biometric categorisation; on all AI physiognomy; on all systems used to predict future criminal activity; and on all systems to profile and risk-assess in a migration context — arguing for prohibitions “on all AI systems posing an unacceptable risk to fundamental rights”.

On this the groups’ recommendations echo earlier calls for the regulation to go further and fully prohibit remote biometric surveillance — including from the EU’s data protection supervisor.

The civil society groups also want regulatory obligations to apply to users of high risk AI systems, not just providers (developers) — calling for a mandatory obligation on users to conduct and publish a fundamental rights impact assessment to ensure accountability around risks cannot be circumvented by the regulation’s predominant focus on providers.

After all, an AI technology that’s developed for one ostensible purpose could be applied for a different use-case that raises distinct rights risks.

Hence they want explicit obligations on users of “high risk” AIs to publish impact assessments — which they say should cover potential impacts on people, fundamental rights, the environment and the broader public interest.

“While some of the risk posed by the systems listed in Annex III comes from how they are designed, significant risks stem from how they are used. This means that providers cannot comprehensively assess the full potential impact of a high-risk AI system during the conformity assessment, and therefore that users must have obligations to uphold fundamental rights as well,” they urge.

They also argue for transparency requirements to be extended to users of high risks systems — suggesting they should have to register the specific use of an AI system in a public database the regulation proposes to establish for providers of such system.

“The EU database for stand-alone high-risk AI systems (Art. 60) provides a promising opportunity for increasing the transparency of AI systems vis-Ă -vis impacted individuals and civil society, and could greatly facilitate public interest research. However, the database currently only contains information on high-risk systems registered by providers, without information on the context of use,” they write, warning: “This loophole undermines the purpose of the database, as it will prevent the public from finding out where, by whom and for what purpose(s) high-risk AI systems are actually used.”

Another recommendations addresses a key civil society criticism of the proposed framework — that it does not offer individuals rights and avenues for redress when they are negatively impacted by AI.

This marks a striking departure from existing EU data protection law — which confers a suite of rights on people attached to their personal data and — at least on paper — allows them to seek redress for breaches, as well as for third parties to seek redress on individuals’ behalf. (Moreover, the General Data Protection Regulation includes provisions related to automated processing of personal data; with Article 22 giving people subject to decisions with a legal or similar effect which are based solely on automation a right to information about the processing; and/or to request a human review or challenge the decision.)

The lack of “meaning rights and redress” for people impacted by AI systems represents a gaping hole in the framework’s ability to guard against high risk automation scaling harms, the groups argue.

“The AIA currently does not confer individual rights to people impacted by AI systems, nor does it contain any provision for individual or collective redress, or a mechanism by which people or civil society can participate in the investigatory process of high-risk AI systems. As such, the AIA does not fully address the myriad harms that arise from the opacity, complexity, scale and power imbalance in which AI systems are deployed,” they warn.

They are recommending the legislated is amended to include two individual rights as a basis for judicial remedies — namely:

  • (a) The right not to be subject to AI systems that pose an unacceptable risk or do not comply with the Act; and
  • (b) The right to be provided with a clear and intelligible explanation, in a manner that is accessible for persons with disabilities, for decisions taken with the assistance of systems within the scope of the AIA;

They also suggest a right to an “effective remedy” for those whose rights are infringed “as a result of the putting into service of an AI system”. And, as you might expect, the civil society organizations want a mechanism for public interest groups such as themselves to be able to lodge a complaint with national supervisory authorities for a breach or in relation to AI systems that undermine fundamental rights or the public interest — which they specify should trigger an investigation. (GDPR complaints simply being ignored by oversight bodies is a major problem with effective enforcement of that regime.)

Other recommendations in the groups’ statement include the need for accessibility to be considered throughout the AI system’s lifecycle, and they call out the lack of accessibility requirements in the regulation — warning that risks leading to the development and use of AI with “further barriers for persons with disabilities”; they also want explicit limits to ensure that harmonized product safety standards which the regulation proposes to delegate to private standards bodies should only cover “genuinely technical” aspects of high risks AI systems (so that political and fundamental rights decisions “remain firmly within the democratic scrutiny of EU legislators”, as they put it); and they want requirements on AI system users and providers to apply not only when the outputs are applied within the EU but also elsewhere — “to avoid risk of discrimination, surveillance, and abuse through technologies developed in the EU”.

Sustainability and environmental protection has also been overlooked, per the groups’ assessment.

On that they’re calling for “horizontal, public-facing transparency requirements on the resource consumption and greenhouse gas emission impacts of AI systems” — regardless of risk level; and covering AI system design, data management and training, application, and underlying infrastructures (hardware, data centres, etc.

The European Commission frequently justifies its aim of encouraging the update of AI by touting automation as a key technology for enabling the bloc’s sought for transition to a “climate-neutral” continent by 2050 — however AI’s own energy and resource consumption is a much overlooked component of these so-called ‘smart’ systems. Without robust environmental auditing requirements also applying to AI it’s simply PR to claim that AI will provide the answer to climate change.

The Commission has been contacted for a response to the civil society recommendations.

Last month, MEPs in the European Parliament voted to back a total ban on remote biometric surveillance technologies such as facial recognition, a ban on the use of private facial recognition databases and a ban on predictive policing based on behavioural data.

They also voted for a ban on social scoring systems which seek to rate the trustworthiness of citizens based on their behaviour or personality, and for a ban on AI assisting judicial decisions — another highly controversial area where automation is already been applied.

So MEPs are likely to take careful note of the civil society recommendations as they work on amendments to the AI Act.

In parallel the Council is in the process of determining its negotiating mandate on the regulation — and current proposals are pushing for a ban on social scoring by private companies but seeking carve outs for R&D and national security uses of AI.

Discussions between the Commission, Parliament and Council will determine the final shape of the regulation, although the parliament must also approve the final text of the regulation in a plenary vote — so MEPs’ views will play a key role.

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Magic Fall Short to Sixers on Night Jalen Suggs Fractures Thumb - OrlandoMagic.com

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The Lead

An all-around gem by Franz Wagner, Mo Bamba’s block party, and physical defense by Wendell Carter Jr. on Joel Embiid played a big part in the Orlando Magic rallying back from 16 down. In the end, though, it was the seasoned Philadelphia 76ers who made enough big plays down the stretch to pull out a 101-96 win. Already shorthanded, the Magic will now be without rookie Jalen Suggs for some time after he fractured his right thumb late in the fourth quarter.

Top Performer

Franz Wagner is getting increasingly comfortable initiating the offense. He possesses all the necessary qualities, including a high basketball IQ, instincts, timing, and creativity, to transform into an elite point forward. That was underscored in this article, and it was demonstrated during his 27-point, six-rebound, and five-assist performance in Philly.

Clutch Moments

A nip and tuck game down the stretch usually comes down to free throws, and that’s precisely what transpired in this contest. After Mo Bamba tied the game with 57 seconds left with a putback dunk, the Sixers made eight of their final 10 foul shots. Philly also made some clutch defensive plays, including a block by Embiid on Wagner with 15 ticks remaining.

Key Stretches

After trailing by as many as 16 early, the Magic stormed back and used a 23-8 run after halftime to grab the lead. Wagner scored nine of his points in that span. A 9-4 run by the Sixers to end the third, however, shifted the momentum back in Philly’s favor.

Injury Report

Suggs’ injury occurred with just under five minutes left in the game when Embiid swiped the ball away from him on a drive down the lane. Cole Anthony, the Magic’s leading scorer, missed his sixth straight game with a sprained right ankle. Also out for Orlando were Michael Carter-Williams (left ankle), Jonathan Isaac (left knee), Markelle Fultz (left knee) and E’Twaun Moore (left knee sprain). For Philadelphia, Aaron Henry (G League – Two-Way), Grant Riller (G League – Two-Way), Ben Simmons (personal reasons), and Jaden Springer (G League – On Assignment) were out.

Rivals Report

Will we see Simmons on the court for the Sixers again? If not, will he get traded by the deadline? And if so, what will Philly get in return? The answer to those questions will determine whether the Sixers have a realistic chance at making it to the NBA Finals or not. Embiid is an all-time great. That’s unmistakable. But what will the Sixers get from the supporting cast when the pressure mounts? Tobias Harris has had his ups and downs in the postseason the last few years. Danny Green the same. Tyrese Maxey and Seth Curry are having terrific seasons. Will they be able to sustain this level of play come the postseason?

This Day in History

Dwight Howard had six 30-20 performances with the Magic. One of them came on Nov. 29, 2008 when he scored 32 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in a win over the Indiana Pacers. Rashard Lewis posted 24 points and Hedo Turkoglu finished with 22. The Pacers were led by Danny Granger, who tallied 27 points.

Quote of the Night

“The game is starting to slow down for him, and it’s showing a lot. He’s a big part of what we are trying to build here in Orlando. Just wishing him a speedy recovery. I know he will be back in no time.” – Bamba, who recorded a career-high six blocks to go along with 17 rebounds, on Suggs

Up Next

The Magic return home to play the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday at 7 p.m. before heading out on a week-and-a-half long West Coast trip. The Nuggets have been decimated by injuries in the first quarter of the season. Jamal Murray is recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last season. PJ Dozier tore his left ACL last week. Back surgery will keep Michael Porter Jr. out the rest of the year. Nikola Jokic returned to Denver’s lineup Monday in Miami after missing the prior four games with a wrist injury.

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ETS News Release: New Time and Leave System Completed - David Y. Ige | Newsroom

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ETS News Release: New Time and Leave System Completed

Posted on Nov 29, 2021 in Latest News, Newsroom

HONOLULU – The state recently completed the implementation of a new electronic time and leave system that creates greater accuracy and efficiency in its payroll process. About 13,000 employees in the Executive and Legislative branches, and the Office of the Hawaiian Affairs are using the new system. Over 90,000 electronic leave records now flow through the automated system each month, and electronic timesheets are used to auto-calculate overtime and other types of pay.

Timesheets and leave requests are now transmitted electronically to the State’s Central Payroll Office, replacing the 40-year-old paper-based, labor-intensive tracking methods in employee pay calculation. The new functionality, which integrates seamlessly into the HR and payroll systems, processes pay more efficiently and with greater consistency than the manually calculated timesheets of the past, and employees now have visibility to their paid leave benefits with each pay period.

Key features of this system include:

  • The ability for users to make corrections quickly and resubmit time and leave records to prepare for payroll deadlines.
  • A streamlined and secured automated approval workflow.
  • Audits and queries to manage payroll costs.
  • Employee access to electronic timesheets and leave records, along with their pay information well in advance of pay day, using email notices and confirmations.
  • Features to facilitate employee donations of leave, to help co-workers in need.

The project was implemented by Hawaii Modernization Initiative, which is under the purview of the Department of Accounting and General Services (DAGS), in coordination with the Office of Enterprise Technology Services (ETS).

Comptroller Curt Otaguro said, “The completion of the new time and leave system marks an important milestone in the State’s continuing effort to modernize its legacy systems.   The Time and Leave implementation also aligns with Governor Ige’s priority of restoring the public’s trust in government by committing to reforms that increase efficiency, reduce waste, and improve transparency and accountability.  I am proud of our DAGS and ETS project team for their follow through and commitment to complete this project.”

“The completion of the new Time and Leave System is another example of new State systems that deliver better customer service and efficiency benefits for the State. The state continues to successfully modernize our legacy IT infrastructure.  This provides the state with more resilient and robust systems that will improve security, performance and productivity,” said Doug Murdock, chief information officer, ETS.

Time and Leave was launched in June 2020 and was completed on time and on budget.

In 2019, the State of Hawai’i successfully completed its payroll modernization project, which implemented electronic pay processing. Payroll records such as pay statements and W-2s are now available for retrieval electronically through the Hawaii Information Portal. Employees can also now submit their direct deposit choices and tax withholding forms. Oracle PeopleSoft’s Time & Labor and Absence Management modules have been integrated into the payroll system. CherryRoad Technologies, Inc. has been the State of Hawai’i’s implementation partner for the State since 2016.

###

Media Contact:

Caroline Julian-Freitas

Office of Enterprise Technology Services

www.ets.hawaii.gov

Office:  (808)586-1866

Anthony Benabese

Department of Accounting and General Services (DAGS)

www.ags.hawaii.gov

Office:  (808)586-0404

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Monday, November 29, 2021

China's short-term money rates jump on tighter month-end cash conditions - Reuters

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SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - China's short-term money rates spiked on Tuesday amid tight liquidity conditions in money markets, as financial institutions sought cash to meet month-end administrative requirements.

The volume-weighted average of seven-day repo traded in the interbank market rose more than 12 basis points to 2.3732% -- the highest level since Sept. 29.

The volume-weighted overnight repo traded in the interbank market jumped about 32 basis points to 2.1801% --the highest since Oct. 19.

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The rise in money market rates also comes as sentiment in global bond markets turned tepid, while Chinese assets remained largely muted to uncertainty about the new coronavirus variant Omicron.

Some traders said non-bank financial institutions, such as brokerages, had to pay a borrowing cost of about 10% for overnight repos traded in the interbank money market as major state-owned banks, a key source of funds, were unwilling to lend.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net 50 billion yuan via reverse repos into the banking system earlier in the session, but the fund injection did little to soothe tensions.

Meanwhile, local governments rushed to sell their so-called special bonds, which mainly fund infrastructure projects, to meet a Tuesday deadline for this year's special bond issuance, the finance ministry said. read more

A total of 204.98 billion yuan ($32.17 billion) worth of local government bonds are due to be sold on Tuesday, according to official data compiled by Reuters, the highest single day issuance of such debt this year.

China has set an annual quota of 3.65 trillion yuan for the issuance of local government special bonds this year.

But Ming Ming, head of fixed income research at CITIC Securities, expected money markets to stabilise in December.

"Structural tools such as re-lending will be the key monetary policy tools, while the central bank would mainly rely on open market operations and medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to keep liquidity reasonably ample," he said.

A batch of 950 billion yuan worth of MLF is set to expire in mid-December.

($1 = 6.3724 Chinese yuan)

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Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Kim Coghill and Ana Nicolaci da Costa

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Rapid Reaction: Seahawks Rally Late But Fall Short In MNF Loss To Washington - Seahawks.com

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1. Seattle's offense is still dealing with the same issues.

For the Seahawks to get back on track, they knew they needed an offense that has been struggling for much of the season to get back on track, and the hope heading into this week's game is that they would be able to clean up some of the issues, particularly on third down. But while Russell Wilson and the offense were able to get a touchdown early, a superb Wilson throw to Gerald Everett after a deep ball to Lockett got the Seahawks into the red zone, it was a struggle for the offense the rest of the way until touchdown drive in the game's final minutes.

After that first quarter touchdown drive, the Seahawks had only three first downs on their next eight possessions, and they went three and out on five straight possessions, including all four third-quarter possessions. The Seahawks' most promising drive after the touchdown, until the end of the game, was also the result of a deep ball to Lockett, this time for 39 yards, but that possession ended on a turnover when Alex Collins fumbled at the end of a 13-yard reception.

Third down was again an issue, with the Seahawks converting just 4 of 12 attempts, with two of those conversions coming on the first-quarter touchdown drive. And with the offense not converting, the Seahawks were again at a big disadvantage in terms of total plays run (45 to Washington's 79) and time of possession (18:20 to 41:40).

The offense did show a spark late in the game, with Wilson leading a 96-yard touchdown drive in the final 2:19, but the 2-point conversion attempt was intercepted, allowing Washington to hang on for a win.

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Buccaneers: Running game coming alive at perfect time - The Pewter Plank

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Just when they need it most, the running game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is coming to life. This development will pay off in dividends for the Buccaneers.

In the NFL, the power of a strong rushing attack is timeless. Year after year, a strong running game is what survives late in the season when teams are cold and banged up. That doesn’t mean a team should run it fifty times per game, they just need to be effective when doing so. There’s a quality over quantity aspect to it, and it stands the test of time.

The Bucs proved this in 2020 when Leonard Fournette evolved into “Playoff Lenny” then eventually his final form of “Lombardi Lenny” helping Tampa Bay win its second Super Bowl in franchise history. Strong running games can make up for a weak passing attack, such as how the Tennesee Titans and San Francisco 49ers have been winning the last couple of years, but the opposite isn’t true. You have to be able to eventually run out the clock with a lead. It’s why the “Run and Shoot” offense has become a thing of the past, despite the current NFL’s pass-happy, and pass-friendly, status.

During the Buccaneers’ week twelve victory over the Indianapolis Colts, the rushing game helped win the day. Tom Brady was fine, but far from his best self, throwing for 226 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, completing 25 out of 34 passes. Rob Gronkowski turned back the clock though while the other pass catchers on the Bucs failed to make much of an impact.

The story is the Buccaneers’ running game though.

Ronald Jones carried the rock seven times for 37 yards, but added his second touchdown in as many games, while the aforementioned Fournette rushed 17 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns, adding of course one through the air. However, his final touchdown jaunt that ultimately won the game had to be seen to be believed.

24 carries from the top two backs, with one Chris Godwin carry and two Brady runs thrown in. Simple and effective. You don’t have to run it a million times, but when you do it has to be effective, ideally with multiple backs sharing the load. Luckily, that’s exactly what is happening for the Bucs before our very eyes.

The Buccaneers’ running game is coming alive and paired with the fact that the team is getting healthy, means that they are very well-equipped to make yet another deep playoff run, with some help from that Brady guy of course too.

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With Scant Information on Omicron, Biden Turned to Travel Ban to Buy Time - The New York Times

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“Here’s what it does: It gives us time,” President Biden said of the flight restrictions. He called the new variant a cause for concern, not panic.

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President Biden called the new Omicron coronavirus variant “a cause for concern, not a cause for panic,” and urged Americans to get vaccinations and booster shots. The variant has not yet been detected in the United States.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — By the time President Biden was briefed on the emergence of a fast-moving new Covid variant on the morning after Thanksgiving, he had a choice to make — and little information to base it on.

In a secure conference call from a vacation compound overlooking Nantucket Harbor, the president listened as his health advisers told him that the highly mutated virus was far more concerning than other variants they had seen in recent months. It spread twice as fast as the dominant Delta variant and had the potential to evade treatments and vaccines.

Banning travel from southern Africa, where the variant was discovered last week, would not stop the coronavirus from finding its way to the United States, the officials told Mr. Biden, even though Britain and several other countries had announced similar restrictions. But the measures might slow the spread.

During the 30-minute briefing, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the president’s top medical adviser for the coronavirus, and other health officials acknowledged how little they knew about the threat, according to White House officials and others familiar with the discussion. But they concluded that even a potentially marginal benefit from a travel ban was worth the criticism that it was likely to generate from the affected countries, the officials said. Better to be criticized for something you do, rather than for something you don’t do.

A few hours later, as Mr. Biden ate lunch with his extended family at the Nantucket Tap Room, the White House issued a statement in his name announcing a ban on travel from eight countries in southern Africa, prompting outrage among leaders in that region — and from global health experts who questioned the benefits of the move, saying it was tantamount to punishing South Africa for being transparent about the virus.

“Here’s what it does: It gives us time. Gives us time to take more actions to move quicker,” Mr. Biden said at the White House on Monday morning as he called the new variant, named Omicron, “a cause for concern, not a cause for panic.”

The sudden arrival of Omicron represented a jarring, here-we-go-again moment for a weary and politically divided country after nearly two years of battling the pandemic. It also underscored the difficult position the president is in as he seeks to respond aggressively to yet another public health threat.

The scramble among White House and public health officials on Thursday night and Friday morning was a reminder that the United States remains vulnerable to a virus that is still spreading, unchecked through largely unvaccinated parts of the world — a problem that is well beyond the control of any global leader. And it once again highlighted the political dangers for Mr. Biden and his party if a new wave of infections derails the country’s economic recovery and return to some semblance of normalcy.

The president on Monday sought to reassure the public, ruling out a return to the kinds of nationwide “shutdowns and lockdowns” that ground economic and social life to a halt last year. Instead, he said, the administration would combat the new variant “with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing and more.”

Mr. Biden’s call for more vaccinations came as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday altered its guidance and urged all adults to get a booster shot when they are eligible, six months after their initial Pfizer or Moderna doses or two months after their initial Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The agency had previously urged eligible people over 50 and those living in long-term care facilities to get a booster shot, but stopped short of saying that everyone should do so.

In addition, Pfizer and BioNTech will ask federal regulators this week to authorize their booster shot for 16- and 17-year-olds, according to people familiar with the companies’ plan.

Scientists were working to make sure current tests could accurately detect the new variant, officials said; the administration was working with manufacturers to modify their vaccines and booster shots, should that prove necessary, Mr. Biden said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention altered its guidance and urged all adults to get a booster shot when they are eligible.
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White House officials said that the president would outline a detailed strategy for fighting the coronavirus this winter when he visits the National Institutes of Health on Thursday.

But significant risks remain, including to the nation’s economy.

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, plans to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that Omicron creates more economic uncertainty and the possibility of further inflation, according to a copy of his prepared remarks.

“Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people’s willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions,” Mr. Powell plans to say.

In his remarks on Monday, Mr. Biden promised that he was “sparing no effort, removing all roadblocks to keep the American people safe.”

That pledge came as some Republicans seized on the existence of another variant to attack the president. The Republican National Committee issued a statement saying that “Biden failed to shut down the virus as he promised.” Representative Ronny Jackson of Texas, who served as President Donald J. Trump’s White House physician, suggested that Omicron was created by liberals eager to impose further Covid restrictions.

White House officials dismissed the political criticism. Natalie Quillian, the deputy Covid-19 response coordinator, said the potential dangers from the new variant were serious enough to prompt a flurry of meetings among officials from multiple agencies, calls with pharmaceutical companies and urgent messages to health officials in other countries.

“There was a sense of concern, a sense that this felt different from other variants,” Ms. Quillian said. “This had enough of the markers to differentiate itself in the level of concern we felt. We sort of kicked into action Thursday night and Friday.”

The new variant upended the Thanksgiving holiday for administration officials and top scientists, who had scattered across the country for celebrations.

The variant was identified by South African scientists on Thursday afternoon, as many U.S. officials were sitting down to dinner. Shortly before midnight, Dr. David A. Kessler, the chief science officer for the government’s coronavirus response, reached out to a South African partnership, which sent back a genomic sequencing report on the variant.

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the C.D.C. director, were in contact with their counterparts in South Africa late on Thanksgiving Day. Jeff Zients, the president’s Covid-19 response coordinator, and others spent most of the night making calls.

By Friday morning, it appeared that Mr. Zients was leaning toward travel restrictions, according to one person familiar with the deliberations. At 10:30, Mr. Zients, Dr. Fauci and other top scientists were briefed by the South Africans, including Tulio de Oliveira, a geneticist who helped identify the Omicron variant.

After Mr. Biden made the decision to impose the travel ban, State Department officials told diplomats in the affected countries, and administration officials began calling airlines to inform them of the change. From the beginning of the discussion late Thursday, it took about eight hours to issue the presidential directive.

“Even if we bought ourselves a little bit of time to understand this more, that was valuable,” Ms. Quillian said. “And this is an action that’s not permanent.”

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For now, the travel restrictions are the president’s primary response.

Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota who advised Mr. Biden during the presidential transition, said that while travel bans could help officials gain “situational awareness,” they offered only temporary benefits. He said he would not be surprised if the restrictions were soon lifted.

“It’s like in a crime scene,” Dr. Osterholm said. “When you go to a crime scene, what do the police do right away? They lock everything down so they can figure out what’s going on. But that doesn’t mean they are going to keep things locked down for the rest of the day or the rest of the week.”

But several public health experts expressed outrage at the bans, saying they punished South Africa for doing what the United States expected of other nations: tracking the coronavirus, identifying worrisome variants and making the information public.

“Travel restrictions are exactly the wrong incentive to give to countries when you want them to share data,” said Gregg Gonsalves, an activist and associate professor of epidemiology at Yale University. “You want them to be on the lookout for new variants, and you shut your borders?”

Mr. Oliveira warned on Twitter on Monday that because planes were no longer flying to South Africa, his lab might run out of some of the chemical components known as reagents that are needed to test for the variant.

“It will be ‘evil’ if we cannot answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban!” he wrote.

The new variant has again raised criticism that the Biden administration is not doing enough to vaccinate the rest of the world, though that effort is complicated by vaccine hesitancy in other nations.

South Africa has fully vaccinated only 24 percent of its population, according to the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford. It has a better vaccination rate than most countries on the continent, but has asked vaccine makers to stop sending doses because of trouble getting shots into arms, in part because of distribution bottlenecks and hesitancy.

Elsewhere in Africa, the vaccination rate is much lower; in some countries, even health care workers have had trouble getting their shots. The W.H.O. reported last week that only 27 percent of health workers in Africa had been fully vaccinated.

The Biden administration has pledged to donate more than a billion doses to other nations; so far it has shipped 275 million doses to 110 countries.

“Now we need the rest of the world to step up as well,” the president said.

But activists and some global health experts said the administration needed to move faster, arguing that vaccine inequities were the reason for the emergence of the variant.

African officials on Monday criticized the global effort to provide vaccines to their countries, saying in a joint statement that their low vaccination rates were the result of a lack of consistent, reliable doses.

“The majority of the donations to date have been ad hoc, provided with little notice and short shelf lives,” they said in the statement. “This has made it extremely challenging for countries to plan vaccination campaigns and increase absorptive capacity.”

“This trend must change,” they added.

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